NFL ‘TNF’ Week 4: Best bets and preview for Packers vs. Lions

It’s time for another edition of “Thursday Night Football” in the NFL. We nailed the San Francisco 49ers to cover the 10.5-point spread against the New York Giants in Week 3, and we’re on the hunt for another winner this week.

Let’s break down the upcoming matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions and try to find some winning wagers along the way.

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions betting breakdown

Betting odds: Lions -2.5, over/under 45.5, Lions -138 moneyline | Packers +118 moneyline

It’s a battle of the top dogs in the NFC North this week on “Thursday Night Football.” Both the Packers and Lions have gotten off to 2-1 starts, while the 0-3 Minnesota Vikings and 0-3 Chicago Bears are looking up at both. This is a crucial game to decide the division race moving forward.

As always, the “TNF” storyline begins with injuries. There are currently 19 players on the injury report between both teams. The Packers will be without offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, as well as linebacker De’Vondre Campbell and safety Zayne Anderson. Cornerback Jaire Alexander, running back Aaron Jones and wide receiver Christian Watson are all listed as questionable. Jones and Watson are expected to play.

As for the Lions, they’ll be without offensive linemen Matt Nelson and Halapoulivaati Vaitai and fullback/linebacker Jason Cabinda. Five players are listed as questionable, but running back David Montgomery and offensive tackle Taylor Decker should be good to go. 

Due to Green Bay’s lengthy injury report, Detroit has been bet up to -2.5 at most sportsbooks.

‘Thursday Night Football’ best bets

Green Bay Packers +2.5 (-105 FanDuel)

This number felt correct when it was hanging out around PK and Packers +1, but we’ve gotten a bit out of control. Reports are Jones and Watson are going to suit up on Thursday night, giving Jordan Love the healthiest supporting cast he’s had all season.

The Packers closed as 1.5-point home underdogs against the New Orleans Saints last week with Jones and Watson inactive, and now we’ve moved a full point up against a similar team with Green Bay’s two best offensive weapons back in the lineup. If that doesn’t convince you, Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is 16-4 against the spread as an underdog in his career. 

This spread feels one point too high, and you might just get a +3 before kickoff if you wait. We’ll take the home dog either way.

First half under 22.5 (-110 DraftKings)

Slow starts have been a theme for the both the Packers and Lions to start the season. Green Bay and Detroit have combined to go 6-0 to the first half under this year with an average of 18.3 points scored. 

It also helps that both offenses are beaten up heading into “TNF.” Both teams will be missing two offensive linemen, and both starting running backs won’t be operating at 100 percent. Add in the fact that this is a division matchup between two head coaches who know each other’s teams inside and out, and you’ve got a delicious recipe for a first-half under. 

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